10-Year 9mm Ammo Price History (2016–2025): Definitive Trends & Analysis

Updated: 01/08/26

Over the past decade, the price of 9×19mm FMJ ammunition has seen dramatic swings, from relatively stable pre-2020 levels to an unprecedented spike during the 2020–2021 ammo shortage, and finally a return toward normal in recent years.

In early 2021, 9mm prices hit record highs (with even budget ammo about $0.90 per round at the peak), whereas by early 2024 prices had receded sharply, with the cheapest deals falling to around $0.16 per round, and average market pricing in the mid-$0.20 range.

This report examines the key trends year-by-year, analyzes the market forces behind these price changes, and offers strategic buying tips to help shooters save money.

Maintaining a data-driven perspective, we focus on the average market price and the lowest available price of 9mm ammo, since most consumers purchase at or near these lower price points, while briefly noting premium highs (which are less relevant for bulk buyers).

• 2016–2019: Pre-Pandemic Baseline
  • Jump to Section: Pre-Pandemic Baseline
• 2020: The Pandemic Price Surge
  • Jump to Section: The Pandemic Price Surge
• 2021–2022: Extended Correction and Volatility
  • Jump to Section: Extended Correction and Volatility
• 2023–2025: Stabilization and 'New Normal' Pricing
  • Jump to Section: Stabilization and 'New Normal

Major socio-political events have consistently jolted ammo prices.

Below, we examine how elections, tragedies, and global crises impacted 9mm FMJ costs over the last ten years. Understanding these market cycles can help shooters anticipate price movements and avoid overpaying during panic buy periods.

Figure:   Major events like the 2020 pandemic-driven surge (huge price spike) and the subsequent decline back toward  the mid-$0.20/rd by early 2025 are clearly reflected. Understanding this historical trend can help buyers time purchases and avoid overpaying during future spikes.

Figure:  10-year price per round trend for 9mm FMJ ammunition (2016–2025). The blue line represents the average market price per round each month, while the green line shows the lowest available price (bulk deals) each month.

From 2016 through 2019, 9mm ammo prices were remarkably stable. The average cost of a practice-grade 9mm round hovered around $0.20–$0.22, with bargain bulk deals occasionally pushing the lowest prices into the high teens (around $0.18 per round).

This period followed the industry’s recovery from earlier shortages in the early 2010s, resulting in a healthy supply glut by the late 2010s. Manufacturers were producing at normal capacity and demand was steady, leading to competitive pricing for consumers.

In fact, by 2019 ammo prices hit long-time lows, our data shows the lowest available 9mm prices bottomed out around $0.18/rd in late 2019, while average pricing remained near $0.20/rd, the lowest point of the decade.

The cheapest bulk 9mm deals at that time could be found near $0.18 per round (especially during holiday sales or promotions).

Savvy shooters enjoyed this calm market, often stocking up during seasonal sales like Black Friday and Father’s Day when retailers offered additional discounts. Overall, the pre-pandemic years were a buyer’s market, with ample inventory and minimal price volatility. It’s worth noting that political and economic events from 2016–2019 caused only minor ripples in ammo pricing.

For example, the 2016 U.S. election initially prompted a brief uptick in firearms and ammo sales on fears of potential regulation, but when major new gun-control policies failed to materialize, demand eased and prices quickly stabilized.

Similarly, other events (like the 2017 Las Vegas incident or 2018’s Parkland tragedy) led to localized bursts of ammo buying, but these were short-lived.

By the end of 2019, 9mm ammo was plentiful and about as cheap as it had been in years, with many shooters unaware of how dramatically this would soon change.

2020 marked an inflection point for ammo prices, driven by a confluence of extraordinary events. Early in the year, 9mm ammo averaged just $0.17–$0.18 per round (similar to 2019).

However, as the COVID-19 pandemic hit in March 2020, ammunition sales exploded. In spring 2020, lockdowns and uncertainty prompted millions of Americans to buy firearms for the first time and stock up on ammunition.

This sudden surge in demand, combined with pandemic-related factory shutdowns and supply chain disruptions, sparked a severe ammo shortage. By mid-2020, 9mm prices had skyrocketed, even the lowest online prices were around $0.60-0.70+ per round, nearly 4-5× higher than pre-pandemic lows.

This was an unprecedented jump: our data shows that the market average price per round, which had been $0.20 in February, surged to $0.30+ by June 2020 and kept climbing.

Several factors compounded the 2020 price spike:

• Record Demand: An estimated 8+ million Americans became first-time gun owners in 2020, and virtually all were buying 9mm ammo (among other calibers) at any price they could find. Even existing gun owners started panic-buying and hoarding ammo due to fears of societal unrest.
• Social Unrest: The summer of 2020 saw widespread protests and civil unrest, notably after late May. This climate further drove defensive ammunition purchases as people worried about personal safety. Retailers saw shelves cleaned out as soon as stock arrived.
• Election Uncertainty: The heated U.S. presidential election campaign throughout 2020 fueled concerns about potential gun control measures. By the fall, with a possible change in administration, many consumers accelerated ammo purchases “just in case,” adding more upward pressure on prices.
• Supply Disruptions: COVID-19 lockdowns had forced factories (including major ammo plants) to scale back or temporarily halt production. Moreover, one of America’s largest ammo manufacturers (Remington) went bankrupt in mid-2020, and its main plant was reportedly operating at only 10% capacity until new ownership took over. Key components like primers became bottlenecks, limiting how quickly supply could ramp up. This constrained supply just as demand hit record levels.
• Market Dynamics: As supply dwindled, resellers and scalpers entered the fray, buying up whatever ammo they could find and reselling it at marked-up prices. Manufacturers, facing component shortages, also prioritized higher-margin product lines, which meant fewer budget 9mm rounds on the market. All these factors meant prices spiraled upward throughout 2020.

By December 2020, the situation was dire for buyers: 9mm FMJ that had been $180 per thousand rounds a year prior was now $600–$700+ per thousand in many cases.

Our data confirms that at year’s end the average price was about $0.70–$0.75/rd, and even the cheapest bulk cases were in the upper-$0.60s to low-$0.70s per round. In short, 2020’s perfect storm of surging demand and tight supply pushed 9mm ammo costs to historic highs.

Going into 2021, ammo supply remained strained, and prices actually peaked in the first quarter of 2021.

The new year opened with the aftershocks of 2020 still reverberating: the U.S. Capitol unrest in January 2021 and a change to a gun-control-friendly administration further spurred ammo buying early in the year.

In January–February 2021, many retailers had virtually no 9mm in stock, and online prices for basic 9mm FMJ hovered around $0.70–$0.90 per round on average, with even the lowest prices rarely dropping below $0.70 during the peak panic. (On some extreme days, our data shows the absolute cheapest 9mm listings briefy reached around $0.90/rd, understanding and reflecting how acute the shortage became.)

This period represents the all-time high in our 10-year price dataset. Fortunately, as 2021 progressed, the market entered a long, uneven correction phase. By spring 2021, large manufacturers like Vista Outdoors had increased production (bringing Remington’s factory back to 24/7 operation by April 2021) and global supply chains began adjusting.

Prices started to inch down from their peak. However, the decline was irregular, not a smooth drop, but a stair-step pattern. There were plateaus and brief reversals where prices stabilized or even ticked up again for a time. For example, mid-2021 saw a modest price dip followed by a late-summer rally in ammo prices when another wave of COVID and supply hiccups hit.

The ban on Russian ammunition imports (announced August 2021) also created anxiety about future supply of cheap steel-cased rounds, which may have kept prices from falling faster. Through 2021, average 9mm prices gradually fell from around $0.70 to the low-$0.50 per round by December 2021.

The cheapest bulk prices followed suit, dropping from the $0.60s down into the low-$0.40 per round range by late 2021.

Even so, these late-2021 prices were still double their pre-pandemic level, so many shooters continued holding off on large purchases, hoping for further declines. In 2022, the downward trend continued, especially in the second half of the year.

Early 2022 still saw 9mm averaging in the $0.40+ per round range (e.g. around $0.42 in January 2022), partly due to ongoing high demand and shocks like the outbreak of war in Ukraine (February 2022) which kept global demand for ammunition strong. But as 2022 went on, production capacity finally caught up with demand and backorders were filled.

By mid-2022, many retailers began reporting improving stock levels. Prices fell more sharply in the summer and autumn of 2022, entering the $0.30–$0.35/rd range. By late 2022, the market average was about $0.32–$0.38 per round, roughly half of what it was a year earlier.

The lowest-priced deals by end of 2022 were back under $0.30/rd for the first time since the crisis (occasionally dipping into the high-$0.20s on large bulk orders). It’s important to highlight that this 2021–2022 correction, while substantial, still left prices higher than the pre-2020 norm.

The ammo industry had undergone a structural shift: Millions of new gun owners meant baseline demand remained elevated, and inflation in raw materials (lead, copper, etc.) plus continued primer supply constraints prevented prices from fully returning to 2019 levels.

Nonetheless, by the end of 2022, the worst was over, the ammo shortage had decisively eased, and consumers who held off during the peak were rewarded with much more affordable prices.

In 2023, the 9mm ammunition market settled into a period of relative stability. After the rollercoaster of the previous three years, prices found an equilibrium as supply and demand realigned.

Throughout 2023 and into 2024, monthly average prices for 9mm stayed roughly in the mid-$0.20 per round range ($0.24-$0.27), and bargain bulk rates hovered around $0.20–$0.22/rd in 2023, dipping into the high-teens in parts of 2024 for the cheapest brass FMJ.

Day-to-day volatility was greatly reduced, unlike 2020–2021, there were no sudden spikes or crashes.

This stabilization suggests that by 2023, ammo manufacturers had fully caught up with the heightened post-2020 demand. In fact, industry reports indicate that many companies expanded capacity during the shortage (adding new production lines and even new manufacturers entering the market).

These investments bore fruit by 2023, resulting in ample supply and competitive pricing once again. Several indicators illustrate the “new normal” in 2023–2024: Narrowing Price Range: The gap between the average price and the lowest price on the market narrowed significantly.

For instance, where in early 2021 the average 9mm round cost exceeded $0.80 and even the cheapest options were around $0.70, by 2023 the average was ~$0.26 and the cheapest ~$0.20. This means pricing became more consistent across the board, with fewer wildly overpriced offers (and those that do exist are easy for consumers to avoid). Seasonal Trends Return: Traditional seasonal pricing patterns re-emerged.

Historically, ammo prices tend to be lowest in summer and early fall (when shooting activity is high but many manufacturers and retailers run promotions) and highest in winter (hunting seasons and annual manufacturer price increases).

We can see this in 2023–2024 data: prices dipped slightly in mid-2023, then ticked up a bit by winter, and similarly, a small summer dip in 2024 followed by a late-year uptick. Importantly, these seasonal fluctuations were modest, on the order of cents per round, nothing like the swings of 2020–2021. By 2024, 9mm ammo was essentially approaching pre-pandemic price levels in nominal terms.

In fact, in late 2024 the average bulk price ($0.24/rd) was very close to the 2018 average, though still above the rock-bottom 2019 prices. Considering inflation over five years, one could argue ammo was actually cheaper in real terms than it was before.

Notably, the 2024 U.S. election cycle did not cause a major price spike for ammo. Some gun owners did stock up in advance of the election (which historically can drive up demand), and there was a mild upward trend in 9mm prices in the fall of 2024.

However, because manufacturers and retailers had built up significant inventory, the market absorbed this demand without dramatic price hikes. The contrast with 2020’s election is stark, in 2020, election fears contributed to a huge surge, whereas in 2024 the effect was contained to a slight bump of a few cents per round.

2025 and Beyond: As of late 2025, 9mm ammo prices are hovering near $0.20 per round for the lowest-cost options, and $0.22–$0.24 on average, the closest levels to 2019 seen since the pandemic. The mid-2025 low was around $0.21 (summer 2025) and by November 2025 the average was roughly $0.24, indicating a possible floor.

Industry analysts suggest we may be seeing a new normal floor price around $0.20/rd, reflecting increased production costs (materials, labor) compared to a decade ago.

In other words, while supply is abundant, manufacturers aren’t likely to sell much below the high-teens per round round, reflecting higher input costs. Still, for consumers, the situation in 2025 is a night-and-day improvement over the peak crisis years, ammo is readily available and affordable.

In fact, some commentators have noted we’ve gone from shortage to potential surplus, as suppliers now compete for sales in a saturated market. Looking ahead, absent any major upheavals (e.g. new legislation, geopolitical crises, or another pandemic-scale event), 9mm prices are expected to remain relatively stable around the low-$0.20s per round.

Minor fluctuations will continue with seasons and economic factors, but the extreme volatility of 2020–2021 was an outlier. This stabilization is great news for shooters: it allows for normal budgeting and planning, and it opens up opportunities to buy ammo at optimal times rather than in a frenzy.

Understanding the drivers behind these price trends can help consumers anticipate future movements. The 10-year history highlights several key factors that influence 9mm ammo pricing:

• Surges in Demand: When demand suddenly spikes, prices follow. This was clearly seen during the COVID-19 pandemic and civil unrest in 2020. Massive buying by the public, whether due to fear, uncertainty, or geopolitical events, is the single fastest way to send ammo prices upward. Elections and legislative changes also fall in this category; even the expectation of stricter gun laws can trigger waves of panic-buying (as happened in early 2020, and to a smaller extent in 2024).
• Production & Supply Constraints: Ammo manufacturing is capital-intensive and can’t ramp up overnight. Any disruption, factory shutdowns, supply chain issues for components, or loss of manufacturing capacity (e.g. the Remington bankruptcy), constrains supply and thus raises prices. In 2020–2021, supply shortages of key components like primers created bottlenecks that prevented the industry from meeting demand quickly. Shipping and import issues (such as international trade restrictions or import bans on foreign ammo) also play a role.
• Raw Material Costs: The price of raw materials (lead, copper, brass, powder chemicals) directly impacts ammunition pricing. For example, a spike in copper prices in 2021–2022 added cost pressure on brass-cased ammo. When commodity prices rise, ammo manufacturers often pass some of that cost to consumers. Conversely, if material costs ease, it can help moderate ammo prices, though often with a lag.
• Market Competition: The level of competition among ammo producers and retailers affects pricing. During the shortage, fewer sellers had inventory and could charge a premium. By 2023, many new players entered the market or expanded production, increasing supply and competition. Intense competition (plus fear of oversupply) drove prices down. Retail competition (especially online) also forces sellers to offer the best prices to win customers, tools like price comparison websites make it easy for buyers to find the lowest price, which keeps overall prices in check.
• Product Mix (Premium vs. Bulk): During times of constraint, manufacturers may allocate resources to higher-profit ammunition products (such as specialty defensive rounds or hunting ammo) at the expense of cheap range ammo. This can make FMJ range ammo relatively scarcer and pricier. We observed this in 2020–2021, when budget FMJ was often harder to find and not heavily discounted, as companies were busy making more lucrative offerings. In normal times, however, bulk FMJ is continuously produced in high volumes, which ensures the lowest-cost ammo remains available.
• Economic Inflation: General inflation in the economy (rising wages, transportation costs, etc.) gradually increases the base cost of ammo production year over year. From 2016 to 2025, the cumulative inflation means that even if supply and demand are balanced, the “normal” price in 2025 might be somewhat higher than in 2016. Indeed, the floor price of 9mm appears to have risen from the high-teens per round to around $0.20 over the decade, partly due to these structural cost increases.
• Seasonality: As mentioned, ammo prices can fluctuate with seasonal trends. Manufacturers commonly announce price increases at the start of the calendar year (leading to slightly higher prices in winter as dealers adjust). Meanwhile, slower summer sales often lead to discounts and promotions to clear inventory. While seasonality won’t cause drastic price swings on its own, it’s a predictable factor savvy buyers can leverage (buy during summer sales, be cautious of price hikes in January).

By keeping an eye on these factors, especially demand signals (e.g. political climate, news events) and supply news (e.g. factory expansions or raw material price changes), consumers can get a sense of where ammo prices are heading. In the next section, we’ll translate these insights into concrete buying strategies.

For shooters looking to save money and avoid overpaying, the lessons from the past decade suggest a few smart strategies:

• Buy During Lulls, Not Panics: Timing is everything. Avoid purchasing ammo in the middle of a panic or shortage, when prices are inflated (such as early 2021’s peak), unless you absolutely have to. Instead, plan your buys during calm periods when demand is lower. For example, the post-2022 period (2023–2024) has been an excellent time to stock up, with prices at post-pandemic lows and plenty of inventory. If you stay aware of current price trends, you can recognize when prices are relatively low and buy incrementally or in bulk at those times. Historically, off-season months (summer) and year-end holiday sales are ideal for finding bargains on ammo.
• Take Advantage of Sales & Promotions: Keep an eye out for big sales events. Retailers often offer discounts on ammo around Black Friday, Cyber Monday, Memorial Day, and Father’s Day, sometimes through coupon codes, rebates, or free shipping deals. If you subscribe to newsletters or follow your favorite ammo retailers (like Ammunition Depot), you’ll get notified about these promotions. Stocking up during a good sale can shave several cents per round off the price, which adds up significantly for case quantities.
• Buy in Bulk Quantities: Whenever feasible, buy ammo in bulk (500, 1000 rounds or more at a time). Bulk packages almost always have a lower per-round cost than 50-round boxes. For instance, you might find that 1000 rounds cost $250 ($0.25/rd) while a 50-round box of the same ammo is $15 ($0.30/rd), that’s a 17% savings per round by buying the case. If 1000 rounds is more than you personally need, consider splitting a bulk purchase with a friend or two to enjoy the volume discount. Just be sure to calculate the total cost, including shipping, when comparing deals, as shipping can affect the net price per round.
• Diversify Your Calibers and Stock: If you shoot multiple calibers, be aware that not all ammo types experience shortages or price spikes equally. For example, during 2020, common calibers like 9mm and 5.56 NATO were hit hardest, whereas some less popular calibers didn’t spike as much. This isn’t to suggest picking an obscure caliber just to save money (9mm is popular for good reasons), but if you already own firearms in different calibers, you can practice with whichever ammo is cheapest at a given time. Also, maintain a reasonable ammo reserve so that you’re not forced to buy at high prices. Having a few months’ supply of 9mm on hand (based on your shooting rate) will give you flexibility to wait out short-term price increases.
• Monitor the Market: Make use of online tools and resources to track ammo prices. Websites that aggregate or track ammo prices (like Ammunition Depot’s price charts, or other price comparison sites) can help you identify trends and spot deals. For example, if you notice prices creeping up for several weeks in a row, it might signal it’s time to buy before they rise further. Conversely, if prices are steadily dropping or inventories are growing, you might wait for an even better deal. Knowledge is power; the more informed you are about price history and current trends, the better you can time your purchases.
• Stay Calm During Scares: Finally, and perhaps most importantly, don’t panic with the crowd. Manufacturers have dramatically expanded capacity since 2020, so future shortages may be less severe. If a news event causes a rush on ammo, remember the cycle we saw: prices shoot up fast, but they also come down eventually when supply rebounds. Panic-buying at high prices only encourages more price inflation. Instead, buy a bit before you think a surge might happen (e.g. months before a major election or anticipated regulation) and refrain from hoarding beyond your needs. This way, you’ll have what you need at a fair price and can ride out any temporary shortage.

By following these strategies, buying when prices are low, capitalizing on bulk discounts and sales, and staying informed, you can significantly reduce your ammo costs over time.

The past decade of 9mm price history shows that while crises do occur, they eventually pass. Well-prepared, patient buyers ultimately saved hundreds of dollars by avoiding the peak prices and purchasing during the dips.

With the current 2025 market offering plentiful supply and favorable prices, now is an opportune moment to replenish your ammo stocks and get prepared for whatever the future holds, without breaking the bank.

The 10-year journey of 9mm ammunition prices has been volatile, from stability to crisis and back to stability.

For consumers, the key takeaway is that price volatility can be managed with informed buying habits. Today’s 9mm prices (around $0.20–$0.25) are a far cry from the 2020–2021 highs, illustrating that patience and market awareness pay off.

By understanding the factors that drive ammo prices and applying the strategic tips outlined above, shooters can ensure they always have enough ammunition on hand without overspending.

In an ever-changing world, staying adaptable and knowledgeable is the best way to keep your shooting hobby affordable and enjoyable. Stay safe, shoot straight, and happy bargain hunting!

Sources

Primary pricing data sourced from Ammunition Depot (2016–2025). Additional contextual references (e.g., U.S. ammunition shortage history) used for background on market forces.

QUESTION: Why did 9mm ammo prices spike so much in 2020–2021?
ANSWER: The surge in 2020–2021 was caused by an unprecedented convergence of factors. The COVID-19 pandemic, widespread civil unrest, and a heated election year all hit at once, driving huge demand (millions of new gun owners and panic buyers) while the supply chain for ammo collapsed (factories shut down, component shortages).

Essentially, everyone was buying ammo, and manufacturers couldn’t keep up, leading to shortages and steep price increases. The 9mm, being the most popular caliber, was especially hard-hit; its price jumped roughly four to five times from pre-pandemic levels at the peak of the frenzy.

QUESTION: What was the cheapest price per round for 9mm in the last 10 years?
ANSWER: In our 10-year analysis, the lowest observed prices for new brass-cased 9mm were in the high-teens per round, with brief dips to around $0.16–$0.18 during periods of excess supply, notably in early 2020 and early 2024. For context, those were times when manufacturers and retailers had a glut of inventory and were offering fire-sale discounts.

The long-term pre-pandemic “normal” floor was closer to $0.17–$0.19 per round, so anything around 15 cents is unusually low. Consumers who bought at those times got historically great deals on ammo.

QUESTION: When was 9mm ammo most expensive, and how high did it get?
ANSWER: The worst period for buyers was early 2021. During this peak, average prices approached $0.90–$0.95 per round, and even the cheapest listings were often around $0.85–$0.90, with premium or resale prices exceeding $1 per round for basic FMJ.

The pandemic panic and election fears fueled this peak. Prices began easing after Q1 2021 as supply caught up, but 9mm stayed above $0.30 for most of 2021. To put even $0.60 in perspective: that’s three times the typical price in 2019. Fortunately, such peaks have been rare and short-lived.

QUESTION: Are 9mm ammo prices back to normal now (2025)?
ANSWER: Yes. As of 2025, 9mm prices have largely returned to their pre-pandemic normal. Currently, 9mm FMJ typically runs around $0.20–$0.24 per round at retail, which is comparable to 2018–2019 levels. In fact, after adjusting for inflation, one could argue that ammo is cheaper now than it was before COVID.

The market correction in 2023–2024, where supply overshot demand, pushed prices down to this equilibrium. Unless another panic occurs, around $0.20–$0.25 per round appears to be the current normal range for bulk 9mm. That said, premium defensive ammo (hollow points) and specialty loads do cost more and haven’t dropped as much percentage-wise as target FMJ ammo.

QUESTION: What could cause 9mm prices to spike again in the future?
ANSWER: The ammo market is cyclical, and spikes happen when a surge in demand meets a drop in supply. Potential triggers for another price spike include: a major push for gun control legislation (which often happens after high-profile incidents or elections), geopolitical conflicts or import bans that cut off supply (for example, any disruption similar to the Russia ammo import ban could tighten the market), or a sudden wave of new shooters (as seen during COVID).

The upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election is one event to watch; election jitters have caused runs on ammo in the past. In short, anything that makes people worry that ammo will become scarce or more regulated can become a self-fulfilling prophecy as everyone rushes to buy. The best defense is to keep a healthy stock during calm times, so you’re not affected if and when a panic surge strikes.

QUESTION: How was this pricing data collected, and can I trust these figures?
ANSWER: The pricing data comes from our in-house tracking of daily retail prices from 2016 through 2025, compiled across major online ammo retailers. We track minimum, average, and maximum prices observed each day. Extreme one-off anomalies were reviewed to ensure the dataset reflects real consumer pricing rather than errors.

The data aligns closely with known market events: for example, average 9mm prices hovered near $0.20 in 2019 and peaked near $0.90–$0.95 in early 2021. While regional variation exists, the overall trends accurately reflect the U.S. retail market.