10-Year 9mm Ammo Price History (2016–2025): Definitive Trends & Analysis

Updated: 11/7/25

Over the past decade, the retail price of 9mm full metal jacket (FMJ) ammunition (factory-new, brass-cased) has swung dramatically in response to political events, economic cycles, and global crises.

This page presents a comprehensive 10-year price-per-round (PPR) history for 9mm FMJ ammo, based on a proprietary dataset of retail prices. We’ll break down the major market cycles, highlight all-time highs and lows, and provide actionable tips for buyers.

By the end, you’ll understand how 9mm ammo prices reached a peak of around $0.60 per round in early 2021, then fell back near $0.20 per round by 2025, and how to use these trends to your advantage.

• Current Average Price (Late 2025): $0.20 per round (near pre-pandemic levels)
• All-Time High: $0.60 per round (January 2021 peak during COVID-19 panic)
• All-Time Low: $0.15 per round (late 2019, amid oversupply; similar lows seen mid-2024)
• 10-Year Average Price: $0.25 per round (with extreme volatility around crisis events)
• Pre-Pandemic Baseline (2015–2019): $0.18–$0.25 per round (generally stable)
• Pandemic-Era Spike (2020–2021): Averaged $0.40+ per round (massive shortage-driven inflation)

Major socio-political events have consistently jolted ammo prices.

Below, we examine how elections, tragedies, and global crises impacted 9mm FMJ costs over the last ten years. Understanding these market cycles can help shooters anticipate price movements and avoid overpaying during panic buy periods.

Figure: 10-year price-per-round trend for 9mm FMJ ammo (2015–2025). The line chart shows monthly average retail PPR in USD.

Notable spikes and dips coincide with key events: the 2020–21 pandemic surge (peaking around $0.60), the Ukraine war in early 2022 (briefly stalling the decline), and an oversupply-driven price crash by 2023–24 (bottoming out near $0.15).

The market largely normalized by 2025 at roughly $0.20/round.

Although slightly outside our 10-year window, the aftermath of the 2008 and 2012 events established patterns that would echo through the 2010s.

The election of President Obama in 2008 triggered a buying frenzy; gun owners feared impending regulations, leading to a nationwide run on ammo. Retailers had trouble keeping shelves stocked as demand outstripped supply.

A few years later, the December 2012 Sandy Hook tragedy again sent shockwaves through the firearms market. Anticipation of stricter gun laws drove another massive surge in ammo hoarding into 2013, resulting in severe shortages of common calibers.

Prices for 9mm (and especially .22 LR) soared as panicked buyers snapped up anything available. These early panics demonstrated how political and social unrest could instantaneously drive up ammunition demand and pricing.

In the mid-2010s, 9mm prices gradually subsided from the post-Sandy Hook highs and entered a period of relative calm. From 2013 through 2015, supply caught up and prices normalized as panic buying waned.

By 2015, 9mm FMJ could often be found around the high-teens cents per round. A tragic footnote in this period was the late-2015 San Bernardino attack, which briefly spurred ammo sales at the end of the year. However, this bump was short-lived.

The 2016 U.S. election brought an interesting dynamic: many expected a new gun- control push if the election resulted in a Democratic administration. In the run-up to November 2016, some enthusiasts quietly stockpiled ammo “just in case.”

But when those fears didn’t materialize (following a pro-Second Amendment election outcome), the industry was left with excess inventory. Manufacturers found themselves in a “Trump slump” – by 2017, ammo supply was plentiful and demand softened without a looming regulatory threat. Retailers slashed prices to move stock, and 9mm PPR remained low (often $0.18–$0.20) through 2017.

One exception to the tranquillity was a minor surge in late 2017–2018. High-profile incidents like the October 2017 Las Vegas shooting and February 2018 Parkland incident sparked debate about gun laws, causing short-lived upticks in ammo buying.

At the same time, economic factors (rising commodity costs and manufacturers adjusting output) put upward pressure on prices.

As a result, 2018 saw a modest climb in 9mm averages (into the mid-$0.20s per round). This was not a full-blown shortage, but shooters noticed that the rock-bottom deals of 2016–2017 were harder to find. By 2019, though, the market had swung back to oversupply.

With no national gun-control scares and manufacturers running at normal capacity, 9mm ammo flooded the shelves. Retailers competed aggressively on price, driving 9mm PPR to its lowest point of the decade, around $0.15–$0.18 per round by late 2019, the all-time low in our dataset. Many savvy buyers stocked up in 2019, not knowing they were about to be vindicated in a big way.

Industry Insight

By 2019, 9mm ammo was as cheap as it had been in years, thanks to a glut of supply and complacent demand. This floor price (15–18¢) would be the baseline from which the next shock would launch.)

2020 marked an unprecedented turning point for ammunition markets. A convergence of crises led to what can only be described as a perfect storm for ammo demand. In March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic triggered nationwide lockdowns and a wave of uncertainty.

Millions of first-time gun buyers entered the market, and existing gun owners dramatically expanded their ammo reserves. By late spring 2020, civil unrest and protests around the country added fuel to the fire, images of unrest on the news drove even more Americans to purchase firearms and ammunition for personal protection.

This was followed by a contentious presidential election in November 2020. Fears of potential gun control under a new administration further intensified the buying spree.

On the supply side, pandemic-related factory shutdowns, supply chain breakdowns, and raw material shortages severely constrained production. In short, demand exploded while supply collapsed – a classic recipe for rapid price inflation.

The immediate outcome: prices skyrocketed. By mid-2020, 9mm that had been $0.17/round just months earlier was selling for $0.30, then $0.50 per round as shelves emptied.

The crescendo came in late 2020 and January 2021: 9mm FMJ, if you could even find it, cost $0.60 or more per round in many cases. Some reports from that period cite panic buyers paying $1+ per round on the secondary market, a staggering 5–6x increase from the year prior.

This all-time high of roughly $0.60/round in our dataset (early 2021) underscores the severity of the shortage. It’s worth noting that the 2020–21 ammo shortage was not isolated to 9mm; it affected nearly all calibers. But 9mm, being the most popular handgun cartridge, became the poster child of the shortage.

Manufacturers like Federal, Winchester, and Remington (which had re-opened ammo production under new ownership) ran at full capacity but still couldn’t meet the unprecedented demand. Storefronts imposed quantity limits, yet ammo would sell out minutes after delivery. This period taught a hard lesson: during a crisis, ammunition can become “the new toilet paper”, scarce and expensive.

By the second half of 2021, the panic began to temper. Demand didn’t vanish, but many consumers had finally stocked up enough. Supply gradually improved as factories found ways to increase output (often by adding extra shifts and bringing idle production lines back online).

Accordingly, prices peaked around Q1 2021 and then began to decline. By late 2021, 9mm was closer to $0.30–$0.40/round, still high, but noticeably below the peak. The worst of the shortage was over, but it would take another year for prices to return to substantially normal levels.

In 2022, 9mm prices were on a downward trajectory but faced two notable headwinds: geopolitical conflict and policy changes.

Early that year, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (February 2022) had an indirect effect on the ammo market. Global instability kept some commodity prices elevated (copper, lead, etc.), and European ammunition manufacturers diverted production to military contracts.

Perhaps more significantly for U.S. consumers, the Biden Administration had imposed a ban on Russian-made ammunition imports (announced August 2021, effective September 2021). Russia was a major source of inexpensive steel-cased 9mm and primer supplies for the American market.

As existing import permits expired in 2022, the flow of cheap Russian ammo like TulAmmo and Wolf slowed to a trickle. This import ban, layered on top of the still-recovering domestic production, meant that the hoped-for glut of 2022 was delayed. Instead, supply remained somewhat tight in the first half of the year.

Despite these factors, the overall trend in 2022 was one of gradual price decline. After the extreme highs of 2020–21, many consumers had ammo stashes and were no longer in panic-buy mode.

Manufacturers continued to ramp up output – for example, Vista Outdoor (Federal CCI), Winchester, and newly reorganized Remington Ammunition all reported increased production capacity. By mid-2022, 9mm FMJ could be found around $0.25–$0.30 per round (significantly down from the peak, but still above pre-pandemic pricing).

The war in Ukraine exerted some upward pressure around March 2022 (primarily by tightening global supplies of components like powder and primers), but it did not cause a demand frenzy among U.S. civilians as domestic events do.

Instead, 2022 was a year of recovery: prices seesawed a bit but on the whole drifted lower as supply caught up and panic buying subsided.

By the end of 2022, the wholesale ammunition market was noticeably softer. Some large retailers began seeing inventory sit on shelves longer and even started to run sales on 9mm for the first time in two years. The stage was set for a true correction.

In 2023, the ammo market flipped from shortage to surplus. Industry insiders and wholesalers noted that consumer demand in 2023 fell back to almost pre-2019 norms, while production remained high.

In plain terms, everyone who had scrambled to hoard ammunition in 2020–21 now stopped buying, and manufacturers – who had expanded capacity during the boom, kept churning out rounds. The result was a classic supply glut. By mid-2023, retailers found themselves overstocked on 9mm ammo and began cutting prices aggressively to spur sales.

Prices for 9mm FMJ tumbled throughout 2023. From about $0.25/round in January, the average street price sank to around $0.18–$0.20 by the fall. We essentially came full circle: the market corrected to the same price range as the mid-2010s.

In fact, by late 2023, promotional deals at some outlets brought 9mm as low as $0.15/round again, matching the lows last seen in 2019. Shooters who held off during the pandemic were rewarded with some of the cheapest ammo in years.

This oversupply situation, coupled with waning demand, created what some commentators dubbed an “ammo recession.” Gun stores reported slower sales and high inventories, forcing them to run discounts and bundle deals (e.g., free shipping or rebates) to move cases of 9mm.

Several external factors contributed to this price collapse beyond just consumer burnout. Inflation and rising living costs in 2023 meant casual shooters had less disposable income for range trips, softening demand further.

Meanwhile, imports from outside Russia (e.g. Eastern European suppliers and new factories in India/Asia) started filling the gap, adding to U.S. supply. And because the political climate in 2023 was relatively calm on gun issues, there were no panic-buy triggers domestically.

Even the outbreak of war between Hamas and Israel in October 2023, while dominating headlines, did not directly impact U.S. ammo sales in a significant way (unlike a U.S.- centric event might). It mainly served as a reminder that global conflicts can strain military stockpiles, but for U.S. consumers the plentiful supplies kept prices low.

Entering 2024, the industry faced significant headwinds: high interest rates (making it costly for manufacturers and retailers to hold large inventories), excess stock from the previous year, and cautious buyers. Many ammunition companies found themselves with warehouses full of product and contemplated production cuts to stop prices from eroding further.

For consumers, 2024 was a buyer’s market. In the first half of 2024, 9mm prices hit rock bottom, with some bulk deals around $0.15/round, essentially the lowest nominal price in a decade. Adjusted for general inflation, that’s cheaper than 2013 or 2019 prices, a testament to how oversupplied the market became.

By mid-to-late 2024, signs emerged that the price free-fall was ending. Some manufacturers scaled back output and focused on higher-margin niche ammo to avoid flooding the 9mm market.

The absence of Russian ammo for over two years had largely been absorbed by other suppliers, and the glut started to clear as consumers gradually increased their range time again (encouraged by affordable ammo). As a result, 9mm prices stabilized in the $0.18–$0.20 range toward the end of 2024.

Now in 2025, 9mm ammunition sits in a new normal price band. As of late 2025, the average retail price is roughly $0.20–$0.22 per round, which is about where it stood in 2019 in nominal terms. In effect, the market has reset following the tumultuous years of the pandemic. High-volume calibers, such as 9mm, have returned to their pre-COVID price level, thanks to recovered supply and cooled demand.

Industry analysts note that unless another shock occurs, ammo prices are likely to remain stable or even slightly soft going into 2026. Manufacturers are cautious; the lessons of 2020’s shortages and 2023’s oversupply are fresh in their minds, so they are trying to balance production to avoid extreme swings.

Looking Ahead

The next major potential disruptor is the 2024 U.S. election. Historically, presidential election years (especially when gun policy is in debate) can prompt a wave of panic buying in the lead-up to November. It remains to be seen if 2024 will repeat that pattern; as of now, the ammo market is in a comfortable equilibrium.

Shooters would be wise to take advantage of the current low prices to stock up, as history suggests that the next spike may be just one crisis away. Whether it’s a political change, a new conflict, or another black swan event, the cyclical nature of the past decade has shown that what goes down can go back up.

Understanding the long-term price history of 9mm ammo isn’t just academic; it can save you money and stress. Here are some strategic tips for consumers to navigate the market cycles and get the most bang for their buck:

• Buy During Low Cycles: The best time to purchase ammunition is when the market is in a lull or oversupply, as seen in 2015–2016, 2019, and again in 2023–2024. During these periods, prices are at their lowest and retailers often run sales. Stock up when 9mm is cheap (around $0.15–$0.20 per round) so you have plenty on hand before the next surge hits. Avoid the temptation to “wait even longer” if prices are already at decade lows; historically, such lows don’t last more than a year or two.
• Avoid Panic Buying: When a sudden event triggers a run on ammo (e.g., a high-profile tragedy or election rhetoric), resist the urge to join the frenzy at its peak. Panicked buyers in 2020 paid 3–4 times the regular price. If you’ve prepared by buying during the calm times, you won’t need to overpay during a crisis. Never pay gouged prices unless you absolutely have no other option. Panics are temporary; prices tend to normalize after the initial rush subsides.
• Keep a Reasonable Stockpile: Based on the past decade, a prudent shooter should maintain a comfortable reserve of ammo for personal use – enough to ride out a year or more of shortages. This doesn’t mean hoard excessively, but consider keeping a few thousand rounds if you shoot regularly. This buffer allows you to continue training through a shortage without having to pay high prices. Rotate your stock (shoot the older ammo and replace it with fresh buys during sales) to keep it from aging out. Essentially, be your own buffer against market volatility.
• Buy in Bulk & Shop Smart: Ammunition is almost always cheaper per round when bought in bulk (by the case, typically 500 or 1000 rounds). Pool purchases with friends or fellow club members to take advantage of bulk case pricing. Also, use price tracking tools and alerts from reputable retailers. Many online stores allow you to sign up for notifications when an item reaches a certain price. Take advantage of manufacturer rebates and seasonal promotions (Black Friday, holiday sales), which often appear during surplus periods. A little planning can save a lot. For example, buying your year’s supply of 9mm ammunition in one go when it’s on sale can lock in a low price.
• Diversify Your Ammo Supply: If you’re concerned about future shortages, consider diversifying the calibers and types of ammunition you store. While the 9mm is king (and tends to get hit hardest by panics), having alternatives can be helpful. For instance, during the 2020 shortage, .40 S&W or .38 Special remained available longer in some areas as fewer people were buying them. This doesn’t mean switch your caliber of choice, but it highlights that being prepared isn’t just about quantity, but also versatility. If you own firearms in multiple calibers, ensure you have a baseline stock of each. Additionally, keep some .22 LR on hand; in past shortages, even when centerfire ammo was scarce or expensive, .22 (while also affected) allows inexpensive practice when centerfire ammo is out of reach.
• Stay Informed on Market Trends: Knowledge is power. Pay attention to firearms industry news and broader events. If you hear about proposed legislation that could restrict guns or ammo, or rising geopolitical tensions, those can be early warning signs of a coming surge in demand. For example, ammo import bans (like the Russian ammo ban in 2021) or major military conflicts can tighten supply. By staying informed, through credible gun news outlets or forums, you can purchase before the crowd reacts. Essentially, treat ammo like a commodity: buy low when everyone else is complacent, and hold or refrain from buying when everyone is scrambling for it.

By following these strategies, you can largely insulate yourself from the wild price swings that have characterized the past decade of 9mm ammo sales. The goal is to never find yourself forced to buy ammo at peak crisis prices. With a bit of foresight, you can shoot consistently and affordably, regardless of what the market is doing.

All data presented on this page comes from our proprietary 9mm FMJ price dataset, which compiles retail pricing information across multiple sources and time periods. Below we outline how the data was gathered, processed, and analyzed:

• Data Sources: We aggregated retail price-per-round (PPR) data for factory- new, brass-cased 9mm Luger FMJ ammunition from a variety of U.S. vendors. This includes major online ammo retailers, manufacturer websites, and large sporting goods stores. We focused on standard 115-grain and 124-grain FMJ range ammunition (the most common types), excluding specialty rounds (+P, JHP, steel-cased imports, remanufactured ammo, etc.) to maintain consistency. The dataset spans from 2015 through 2025, providing roughly ten years of historical coverage.
• Frequency & Granularity: Prices were tracked on a monthly basis (with higher frequency sampling during volatility spikes). For each month, we use the average “street price” per round. In periods of relative stability, monthly averages are sufficient to capture the trend. During chaotic swings (e.g. mid-2020), we ensured more granular data points were included to reflect rapid changes. The price-per- round metric is typically calculated from bulk package prices (for example, a $10.99 box of 50 rounds = $0.219 per round). This PPR measure allows apples- to-apples comparison over time, even as box sizes or case sizes vary.
• Data Cleaning: The raw data was cleaned to remove outliers and non- representative prices. For instance, extremely high prices from secondary resale marketplaces were excluded, as were one-off clearance sale prices far below market. The goal was to chart the typical retail price available to the average consumer each month. We also adjusted for any significant shipping costs if they were generally applicable (though many retailers offer free shipping on bulk ammo, which we accounted for). All prices are nominal (not inflation-adjusted), since our focus is the actual dollar cost to consumers at the time.
• Calculating Averages: Yearly averages (as cited in our summaries) were computed by taking the mean of the 12 monthly prices in a given calendar year. For example, the 2021 average PPR of $0.43 was derived from monthly data ranging from approximately $0.60 (January) down to $0.30 (December). These annual figures smooth out short-term volatility and provide context for each year’s overall pricing level. The all-time high and low were identified from the finest-grained data: early 2021 for the peak ($0.60) and late 2019 (and mid-2024) for the trough ($0.15). Notably, those extrema were brief; our data confirms that such peaks and valleys usually lasted only weeks or months before correcting.
• Key Event Annotations: To connect price movements with real-world events, we annotated the dataset timeline with markers for significant events (e.g., elections, policy changes, global conflicts on their start dates). While correlation doesn’t always equal causation, in the ammo market we often see a strong linkage between events and price spikes. For example, the dataset clearly shows an inflection in late March 2020 corresponding with COVID lockdowns, and a price plateau in early 2022 around the start of the Ukraine war. These annotations helped in our analysis to attribute causes to each major price movement.
• Updates and Maintenance: This reference page is intended to be updated regularly. We plan to refresh the dataset at least quarterly (and more frequently if a major market shift occurs) so that the information remains current. The methodology will remain consistent, enabling direct comparisons over time. If new factors emerge (for instance, a new major importer or a change in consumer buying patterns), we will note them in updates. Our aim is for this page to serve as a living document, a definitive resource on long-term 9mm ammo pricing that keeps pace with the market.
• Download the Data: For the sake of transparency and further analysis, we provide the cleaned 9mm price dataset as a downloadable CSV file. This CSV contains the monthly average price per round from 2015 to the latest update, along with annotations for key events. (Right-click and save link: 9mm- Price-History-2015-2025.csv). Researchers and enthusiasts can use this data to plot their own charts or to compare 9mm with other calibers. (Please note that the dataset is proprietary; if you publish it elsewhere, kindly credit this page as the source.)
• Note on Other Factors: Our price tracking is focused purely on retail ammo prices. It does not directly account for inflation or changes in manufacturing costs. For context, general inflation from 2015 to 2025 was significant, at approximately 20% cumulative. Raw material prices (for metals like copper and lead) also rose in that span. In practice, this means a $0.20/round price in 2025 is actually “cheaper” in real terms than $0.20 was in 2015. However, we present nominal prices since that’s what consumers paid at the time. Despite higher input costs, fierce competition and overproduction in recent years have kept 9mm very affordable. It’s also worth noting that different calibers experienced different dynamics; for example, niche cartridges didn’t see as dramatic a boom-and-bust. But 9mm, being the most-produced and consumed ammo, offers a reliable barometer for ammo market health.

QUESTION: Why did 9mm ammo prices spike so much in 2020–2021?
ANSWER: The surge in 2020–2021 was caused by an unprecedented convergence of factors. The COVID-19 pandemic, widespread civil unrest, and a heated election year all hit at once, driving huge demand (millions of new gun owners and panic buyers) while the supply chain for ammo collapsed (factories shut down, component shortages).

Essentially, everyone was buying ammo, and manufacturers couldn’t keep up, leading to shortages and steep price increases. The 9mm, being the most popular caliber, was especially hard-hit; its price jumped nearly four times from pre-pandemic levels at the peak of the frenzy.

QUESTION: What was the cheapest price per round for 9mm in the last 10 years?
ANSWER: In our 10-year analysis, the lowest typical price for new brass-cased 9mm was around $0.15 per round. This occurred at least twice: in late 2019 and again in mid- 2024 during periods of excess supply and soft demand. For context, those were times when manufacturers and retailers had a glut of inventory and were offering fire-sale discounts.

The long-term pre-pandemic “normal” floor was closer to $0.17–$0.19 per round, so anything around 15 cents is unusually low. Consumers who bought at those times got historically great deals on ammo.

QUESTION: When was 9mm ammo most expensive, and how high did it get?
ANSWER: The worst time for 9mm buyers was late 2020 into early 2021. The all-time high in our dataset hit around $0.60 per round in January 2021[1]. That was an average – in many cases, store shelves were empty, and online prices (or auction resales) exceeded $1 per round for basic FMJ.

The pandemic panic and election fears fueled this peak. Prices began easing after Q1 2021 as supply caught up, but 9mm stayed above $0.30 for most of 2021. To put $0.60 in perspective: that’s three times the typical price in 2019. Fortunately, such peaks have been rare and short-lived.

QUESTION: Are 9mm ammo prices back to normal now (2025)?
ANSWER: Yes. As of 2025, 9mm prices have largely returned to their pre-pandemic normal. Currently, 9mm FMJ runs about $0.20 or a bit less per round at retail, which is comparable to 2018–2019 levels. In fact, after adjusting for inflation, one could argue that ammo is cheaper now than it was before COVID.

The market correction in 2023–2024, where supply overshot demand, pushed prices down to this equilibrium. Unless another panic occurs, around 15–25 cents per round is the “new normal” range for bulk 9mm. That said, premium defensive ammo (hollow points) and specialty loads do cost more and haven’t dropped as much percentage-wise as target FMJ ammo.

QUESTION: What could cause 9mm prices to spike again in the future?
ANSWER: The ammo market is cyclical, and spikes happen when a surge in demand meets a drop in supply. Potential triggers for another price spike include: a major push for gun control legislation (which often happens after high-profile incidents or elections), geopolitical conflicts or import bans that cut off supply (for example, any disruption similar to the Russia ammo import ban could tighten the market), or a sudden wave of new shooters (as seen during COVID).

The upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election is one event to watch; election jitters have caused runs on ammo in the past. In short, anything that makes people worry that ammo will become scarce or more regulated can become a self-fulfilling prophecy as everyone rushes to buy. The best defense is to keep a healthy stock during calm times, so you’re not affected if and when a panic surge strikes.

QUESTION: How was this pricing data collected, and can I trust these figures?
ANSWER: The pricing data comes from our in-house tracking of average retail prices from 2015 through 2025, across major ammo retailers. We compile real transaction prices (what customers would pay, including typical bulk discounts) on a monthly basis. Outlier data (extremely high or low prices) was filtered out to avoid skewing the results. The figures you see here (e.g. yearly averages, highs/lows) are a reliable reflection of market reality, cross-checked against industry reports and known market events.

In fact, they align closely with external analyses, for example, independent research noted 9mm averaging about $0.18 in 2019 and peaking around $0.60 in 2021. We update the dataset regularly. While minor regional differences exist, the overall trends and values are accurate for the U.S. market. You can also download the dataset CSV yourself (see the Methodology section) to verify or to perform your own analysis.